Motorsport Musings Ramblings of a racing enthusiast…

F1 Betting Tomfoolery – Part V

You could quite comfortably write everything I know about the concept of time on the side of a coin, but even I’m aware that three weeks doesn’t last that long, does it? It seems like, ooh, at least a year since the last grand prix in China.

Well okay, perhaps not. But it might as well have been, because as I came to write the next thrilling instalment of my F1-related gambling exploits (which you’re reading now, if you hadn’t already guessed), I realised that I had just about completely erased all memories of what actually happened in the race.

Which is strange as it was quite a decent grand prix, the best since, erm, Australia I guess, and it proved my theory that there’s no need for these consortiums who sit around discussing how to improve overtaking. Just install a few sprinkler systems around each track, timed to go off at random intervals. F1: just add water.

Watching the entire race again did serve as a quick reminder as to how quickly (and spectacularly) the majority of my bets failed.

Let’s see now, Tonio Liuzzi got himself into a spin under braking and careered backwards into Kamui Kobayashi’s Sauber and Sebastien Buemi’s Toro Rosso – retribution for Kobayashi I guess, who caused a similar incident in Melbourne, though a pretty miserable repeat for Buemi, who was one of Kobayashi’s victims in Australia.

Though to be honest, the chances of Liuzzi ever scoring points after starting from 18th on the grid were about as likely as him suddenly stumbling upon Atlantis. But hey, that’s okay, because a Red Bull win coupled with a visit on the podium by Mark Webber would be a dead cert, wouldn’t it?

Their dominant display in qualifying came to nothing on race day as their hopes of victory quickly vanished. Webber was effectively leading from the off, if you discount Fernando Alonso’s jump-starting antics, but the Aussie then knackered his front wing after clouting the jack during his first stop of the day. He was then later shoved off the track by Lewis Hamilton following the safety car restart, ending up eighth overall.

Team-mate Sebastian Vettel didn’t fare much better. Slipping behind Webber at the start and losing time while queuing in the pits. He finished sixth and will probably have been left scratching his head as to how, given he was on the same strategy as Hamilton, who came home second.

The 2008 world champion had an eventful day, gambling on intermediates in the early rain, then back on to the slicks by lap five, before carving his way through the field. My bet that he would out-perform Alonso worked out well, as the Spaniard was hit with a penalty for the jumpstart, plus an incorrect decision to pit for intermediates left him down the order.

Rather impressively, Renault’s Vitaly Petrov finished his first grand prix, and how. He drove well on slicks in the rain and found himself running as high as fourth, having started way back in 14th. A spin mid-race did however see him lose ground. But give him his dues; he did recover quickly and eventually claimed seventh from a rather bemused Webber.

Oh and before I forget, does Petrov’s manager remind anyone else of Brigitte Nielsen in Rocky 4? No? Just me then...

The rain in Spain...

So, the fifth round of the season and my betting coffers stand at a rather pitiful £14.10. Even I can concede that’s frankly rubbish, so a much needed tactic change this week.

Instead of placing half-a-dozen bets and playing it safe, I’m going to plump for just a couple of punts for this weekend’s race in Spain. I think it’s what economists would refer to as the ‘risk-to-reward ratio’, or something grand like that.

The weather forecast for Barcelona this weekend seems to differ depending on where you look. General consensus is that it’s likely to rain prior to qualifying on Saturday, before remaining dry all the way through to Sunday evening.

Rain, snow or lava, I still think Red Bull are the ones to beat. The characteristics of the Circuit de Catalunya should suit the RB6 down to the ground, and even though there is likely to be a big wave of updates from the other teams, the three-tenths advantage they have over Ferrari and McLaren is perhaps too big a gap to close, especially since Red Bull have a few updates of their own.

So, with that in mind, I have gone with a Red Bull fifth consecutive pole at 17/20 (1.85) and, once again, a Webber podium at 17/10 (2.70).

This week's bets