Motorsport Musings Ramblings of a racing enthusiast…

F1 Betting Tomfoolery – Part VI

Spanish Grand Prix in boring race shocka!

But then, what else did we expect? The teams have done so much running at Barcelona, they know the track inside out. Those thousands of miles they’ve clocked up mean there is no real reason not to know what the ideal set-up is, so overtaking opportunities are always limited. The one thing that could have aided the spectacle would have been some inclement weather, but unfortunately that couldn't be bothered to turn up on Sunday.

Almost as predictable as the Spanish Grand Prix being a bit of a borefest, was the likelihood that we would see a Red Bull walkover, and they duly delivered. Well Mark Webber did, as team-mate Sebastian Vettel had a rather troubled Sunday.

But if we rewind back a day, to qualifying, the latest updates to the Red Bull RB6 appear to have vaulted the Milton Keynes-based squad even further ahead of the field on its single lap pace - eight-tenths quicker than McLaren.

Pole could have gone to either Webber or Vettel, but it was the Aussie racer who pieced together a perfect lap, beating his team-mate by a tenth on his final run. The ‘best of the rest’ spot went to Lewis Hamilton, miles away from the charging Red Bull, and with that I pocketed £14.80 in the process.

Webber then went on to convert his pole into a crushing win. Making it to the first corner ahead of the field shortly after the lights went out, and remaining there until the chequered flag was waved 95 minutes later.

In hindsight, I was immensely pleased that I backed the Aussie to feature on the podium and not Vettel, as he was unable to keep up with Webber for once. Losing out to Hamilton and then having to nurse his car home for several laps at the end, hurting with a brake issue (or lack of). Choosing the right side of the Red Bull garage to feature in the top three netted me £16.47.

Street fighting...

The biggest problem facing the drivers this weekend will come during the first qualifying session on Saturday.

Twenty-four cars will have to take to the street circuit at one point or another, and if they all did decide to venture out at the same time, the gap between them would be a maximum of 200 metres.

So expect qualifying to prove very eventful, with perhaps a surprise or two, as a few frontrunners find themselves compromised in the traffic and fail to make much of an impact. For that reason, I’m going to give qualifying a wide berth this weekend. I wouldn’t be too confident of guessing who would bag pole anyway.

Some might have Red Bull as the hot favourite for victory this weekend, thanks to its qualifying pace, but in Monaco, I’m not so sure. Traditionally they have been less competitive at the street circuit, and I don’t expect them to have such a significant advantage due to the tight, slow-speed, nature of Monte Carlo.

So I’m going to chicken out of making any large bets this weekend. The race can be a complete lottery, especially if it rains at any point (40% chance at the moment), so with that in mind I’m backing an experienced driver to excel.

Robert Kubica seems to run well at Monaco and I reckon he could spring a surprise, by popping his Renault further up order than one would normally expect. His car appears to have good traction and a short-ish wheelbase, which should in theory suit the street circuit well, the one thing it does lack is good ol’ fashioned downforce though.

But odds of 4/5 (1.80) for the Polish driver to feature in the top six seems pretty reasonable to me.

Other than that, no other predictions this weekend. My website, my bets, my rules!

Edit: After some thought, I have decided to put a bet on Jarno Trulli out-qualifying Heikki Kovalainen. The Italian one-lap specialist remains undefeated in qualifying at Monaco in comparison to every single one of his team mates - from 1997 until the present day! So £5.00 has been placed on him at odds of 3/5 (1.60)

This week's bet...